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March 01, 2007

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i wonder how the funds are doing now after last weeks near collapse of the stock marekt.

Manny, you brought out a great subject to talk about.

Last week the market went down big time. Picture yourself on roller-coaster going downhill at a hundred miles per hour, as if your intestines are suspended in midair not inside your tummy but outside your body and your trying desperately to grab it and put it back where it belongs before it gets too far away from you, ehehe! This is how the “big boys” (funds money managers) felt during last week.

They “panicked” big time! My theory is that the money managers for the cofa trust fund did not have time to “sell” because the market glitch happened so quick. If they happened to “sell” some, they were wrong because there was nothing wrong with the market as a whole. All “market indicators” were stable and “progressed consistently” upward.

What Palau should do is find a “money manager” for the trust fund who has a “nerve of steel.” A man who does not “panick” come hell or high water during market turbulence. This man must go “aggressive” with the cofa funds, not conservative.

If Palau gave me a $66 million to manage in the year 1995, I could have turned this amount of money close to a “billion dollars” by now, Believe it or not, ehehehe.

What I have said above are my own theories and opinions about the market derived from years of eating “demok” all these years. Ehehehe.

Good day.

Ngeraadian,

Can you share some of these "demok" to the rest of us? We have been eating too much steak therefore, gout is getting out of control. Thanks for your great insight. We need people like you to turn our tiny island around. Adang!

Here is my take on the CTF ( cofa trust fund.) CTF as of december 2006 stands at a meager $166 million. This means the fund for 11 years have only gone up 9.5%! Something is very wrong here! CFA has not gone anywhere for 11 years! it is on a standing still! There are money managers out there making over 15% consistently every year for their funds! Some do more than that!

Buffet, the great investor who owns “Berkshire hadaway” for over 20 some odd years have returned consistently to his investors over 20% a year! Palau should take the 166 million and put it all on this company alone. Just remember each share will cost you $80,000 dollars, I repeat that is “1 share!” for $80,000 dollars, ehehehe.

Here is my solution. Palau should take the 166 million and divide it among 7 to 12 money managers representing different funds. These managers should be "aggressive" in their style of investing. From there all palau has to do is track their “performance” thru out the years, then move “cash” slowly but consistently to 1, 2, or 3 money managers who are performing the best then keep adding new managers to the list as the years go by and dump those who are not performing, meaning move your money out ot their funds!

Once this stategy is done then all palau has to do is “track their Perfomance.” And “move money” This way your money is always in the hands of the best money manager or managers beating the market at that particular “cycle” of the market no matter what year it is.

Again, as I said before, what I mentioned above are my own “opinions.” Based on “demok” from ngaraard that i have been eating too much of, ehehehe. Investing involves risk and so do your research before you implement an investing strategy.

Good day.

Claimant yur not ngaraard,

You sound like UAB or Adyaur. However, CTF is done Consultant-Merilynch, Custodian-Bank of Hawaii and First Hawaiian Bank and there are 5Money managers.

i.e. each day 5boats went fishing and only 3boats did success and the other made not enough the weather was with plenty of fish. Then next day 5boats left and only 2boats caught plenty fish but the other 3boats that made success yesterday did not make today cuase the water was hot and rough. SO, it is unpredictable to fish nor money managing. It goes up and it comes down every now and then.

You share your opinion but there is reality of money market. Nevertheless, the interest returned/earned were reached 12% as predicted by USA. And it is one of the main reason that CRC should make to their report to President for Compact Review. CRC should stop wasting money for their benefits not us Palauans.

Alii Sowal buik ra Ngaraard,

I forgot something very important. The CFT is safe in USA and should the market colapse I have faith that USA will bail us out not like PSB.

BUT, the worst and scarey is our Department of Finance. And it is preditable loosing a lot money especially, the $7,000.00 lost and cover-up. By the way the so-called Controler or comptroller or super director is out the picture in the messy trouble finance. She is like TV with a remote control.

Sorry Ulimang boy

AlabamaELAB,

Thank you for responding. First of all I am not from ulimang and 99.99% you are not going to figure out who I am Althought I am going to say that I am from ngaraard, home grown and well fed from them demok. Savvy?! Hehehe.

Without further due let us discuss about the subject at hand. In order to do that I am going to dissect your blogs into fragments and talk about each one.

YOUR COMMENT >> CTF is done Consultant-Merilynch, Custodian-Bank of Hawaii and First Hawaiian Bank and there are 5Money managers.
MY COMMENT >> First of all, I didn’t ask who handles the CTF, my recent blogs tells you that the fund has been “performing poorly.”
It does not matter who are handling the fund, the bottom line is that “they” have not done their job making money for
The fund. If they claim otherwise, then the effort has been “minimal.” Savv?! As I have said before, the fund needs a
a new breed of managers, representing different brokerage firms across the board. In other words, you do not want 7-
12 money managers representing the “same firm” to handle the fund. The bottom line is this, if the fund have
established an 11 years of track record history of only 9.5% why keep your money in the hands of the same money
money managers?! Are you waiting for them to perform better next year? If so that is absolutely ridiculouse.
I say is time to make a “switch” ladies and gentlemen and the time is now!

YOUR COMMENT >> each day 5boats went fishing and only 3boats did success and the other made not enough the weather was with plenty of fish. Then next day 5boats left and only 2boats caught plenty fish but the other 3boats that made success yesterday did not make today cuase the water was hot and rough. SO, it is unpredictable to fish nor money managing. It goes up and it comes down every now and then.
MY COMMENT >> I see some flaws in your comment above. First of all, you know I know that professional fishermen especially palauans know “when it is good to go out and fish or not.’ Not only that but they know what “type of fish to get” and at “what area” in the oceans of palau they are suppose to fish. In other words, they have established an “experience” and a “track record” from their years of fishing, savvy?! There are money managers out there who have track “records” and the “experience.” They know which stocks to buy and at what “particular time” and “where.”

YOUR COMMENT >> SO, it is unpredictable to fish nor money managing. It goes up and it comes down every now and then.

MY COMMENT >> your absolutely wrong because if you knew that you are going to give your 166 million to a bunch of money managers who are “unpredictable” whether they are going to make you money on your investement, your not going to give them your money are you? Secondly, Money managing is not undpredictable, the “market is only unpredictable to you, when you are wrong.”


YOUR COMMENT >> You share your opinion but there is reality of money market. Nevertheless, the interest returned/earned were reached 12% as predicted by USA. And it is one of the main reason that CRC should make to their report to President for Compact Review. CRC should stop wasting money for their benefits not us Palauans.
YOUR COMMENT >> You are wrong in here as well because CTF is not 100% invested in money market, part of it is invested in individual companies as one of the above blog would say, “In the fourth quarter of 2006 showed top 10 stock holdings, which include holdings in companies such as Microsoft, BOeing Co., Hewlett Packard, Citigroup Inc., Google Inc., Apple Computer, Cisco Systems, Goldman Sachs and others.”


YOUR COMMENT >> the interest returned/earned were reached 12% as predicted by USA.

MY COMMENT >> when you say “ as predicted by USA” do you mean to tell me that USA says that the interest returned/earned reached 12% therefore the CTF went up 12% in those 11 years? If you say yes, then you are wrong because the above blog says that it went up only 9.5%! the numbers do not lie. One more thing, when you say “USA,” what do you mean? According to my understanding, it is the financial institutions that tell you “the numbers” not “USA”


YOUR COMMENT >> CFT is safe in USA and should the market colapse I have faith that USA will bail us out not like PSB.

MY COMMENT >> When it comes to your money, do not and I repeat, do not expect someone to bail you out when you loose! One more thing, the market never collapse, the only way the market collapse, according to you is “because you lost your money in the downdraft” ehehehe.


Take care my friend.

Sorry, one of "YOUR COMMENTS" should read "MY COMMENT"

till then.

Becheriei ngikal chad el di OLDIU. Ngmengebelung ra kid e diak a ngara el lodengei.

Ngeraardin,

Don't waste your energy with him. He doesn't make any sense. What the heck is he talking about? He said, USA will rescue us, I don't think so. USA knows what's going on within our goverment and where the money is really going. Certainly not for the betterment of our island.

My fellow palauan brothas and sistas,

Too many palauans are “expecting” when it comes to money and when you expect, that is when you get hurt financially. Your money is yours alone and therefore you must learn how to “invest” it yourself.

Demok rule #1 >> Do not blame someone else for loosing your money, blame yourself for giving it to him or her in the first place, savvy?! Ehehehe.

Demok rule #2 >> Do not forget rule #1, ehehehe.


Good day from “ngesang.”

Mr. Raardian,

Thank you for comments are well taken. Maybe my writings were contructive enough to convince you. As far as I know from the COFA negotiation. We were advised by US Government that the Trust Funds will earned interest of 12% but the records showed less. Secondly, US government said that all COFA funds shall be invested in US companies. Thirdly, in the past 11 years the money managers had been changed also, there were couple attempt to reduce from two to one custodian.

Last time stock market crushed our Trust Funds were in total of $168 0r $169,000,000./millions. Then it went down to about $118 million now back to $168,000,000.00. Back in 1994 the Walter Laske from Bank of Hawaii and Martha Brown of Merillynch and money managers held an investment seminar. Honestly, no Palauan had any an education degree of funds (stock) investment nor short term training, but I believe investment seminars had been held by Merillynch and the money manager every year since then.
Don't you think Palau government should find Palauan students or persons by providing him/her a full scholarship funds to complete higher studies of Financial Investment. For example, Rhinehart Silas Kldung who was once working for World Bank. I think we should invest knowledge to our young Palauans and you to take care our long investment funds and others.

Since, you sound good in English and finance I wish you could replace one COFA Board member. I feel like I have faith in you. Palau need new breed like you like I was 25 years ago.

Never forget, Palau's best is far way below many other small nations in many aspect of life: Sports & Education but our mouth always shout loud that we are good or mekud.

I sure think it is the best challenge to Palau.

AlabamaELAB,

First of all, let me take this opportunity and thank you for responding to my blog in a very professional manner. Your blog is very interesting. Somehow as i read it, a dream is born and somehow is leading me to say this:

Palau should be a “financial center” of the pacific. This way we can preserve our lands, and beautiful oceans. No manufacturing, and no production of any kind, Just financial institutions all over the place and all we can see are palauans wearing 3 piece suits all over the place.

Imagine 20 to 50 years from now, you happen to pick up the wallstreet journel and on the first page, you see this huge headline:

“PALAU ISLAND, THE NEXT WALLSTREET OF THE PACIFIC”

hehehe!

Why not! My Palauan brothas and sistas, let us come together and DREAM! And dream big.

Once again I thank you for responding to my blog.

Take care my friend.


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